Kinks in the STEM Pipeline: Tracking STEM Graduation Rates Using Science and Mathematics Performance

Abstract

In an effort to maintain the global competitiveness of the United States, ensuring a strong Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) workforce is essential. The purpose of this study was to identify high school courses that serve as predictors of success in college level gatekeeper courses, which in turn led to the successful completion of STEM degrees. Using a purposive sample of 893 students who had declared a STEM major between the fall of 2006 and the spring of 2008, data were collected on students' high school grades, college grades, national test scores, grade point average, gender, and ethnicity. Using analysis of variance, correlations, multiple discriminant function analysis, and multiple regression models we found that high school calculus, physics, and chemistry (respectively) were predictors of success in STEM gatekeeper college courses. Then using those courses, we constructed a predictive model of STEM degree completion. The implications of this study highlight and reinforce the importance of providing rigorous mathematics and science courses at the high school level, as well as provide some evidence of a potential mediated model of the relationship between high school performance, college performance, and graduating with a STEM degree.