Probabilistic Dynamic Crowd Prediction for Social Navigation

Abstract

In this paper, we present a novel approach that predicts spatially and temporally crowd behaviour for robotic social navigation. Integrating mobile robots into human society involves the fundamental problem of navigation in crowds. A robot should attempt to navigate in a way that is minimally invasive to the humans in its environment. However, planning in a dynamic environment is difficult as the environment must be predicted into the future. This problem has been thoroughly studied considering the behaviour of pedestrians at the level of individuals. Instead, we represent a pedestrian crowd by its macroscopic properties over space, such as density and velocity. With this spatial representation, we propose to learn a convolutional recurrent model to predict these properties into the future. The key design of a probabilistic loss function capturing the crowd's macroscopic properties empowers the spatio-temporal crowd prediction. Using a social invasiveness metric defined on these properties predicted by our convolutional recurrent model, we develop a framework that produces globally-optimal plans in expectation. Extensive results using a realistic pedestrian simulator show the validity and performance of the proposed social navigation approach.