Behavior of Nonproteolytic <i>Clostridium botulinum</i> Type B and E Spores in Cooked Turkey and Modeling Lag Phase and Probability of Toxigenesis

Abstract

ABSTRACT A spore pool inoculum (I) of 4 each type B and E nonproteolytic C. botulinum was applied at levels of log 10 ‐2 to 4 spores per 2–3g sample of cooked turkey (0, 1.47, and 2.2% brine (B), respectively), stored under vacuum at 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, and 30°C up to 180 days. Earliest toxin production at the above temperatures (T) was detected in 0% brine meat after &gt; 180, 8, 4, 1.5, 1.5, and 0.5 days, in the 1.47% brine after 70, 8, 7, 2, 1.5 and 1 days, and in the 2.2% brine after 130, 10, 9, 2.5, 1.5 and 1 days, respectively. Lag phase (LP) was affected significantly by T, I, and Txl (p&lt;0.001) but not B (0.05&lt;p&lt;0.1). The derived model predictive of LP was: Log 10 LP = 0.625 + 6.710 (1/T) + 0.0005 (I) X (T) − 0.033 (T) + 0.102 (B) − 0.102 (I) with R 2 = 0.970. More precise sampling plans and augmentation of our dataset will increase confidence in the model.