Kindergarten Prediction of Reading Skills: A Longitudinal Comparative Analysis.

TLDR

Public policy focuses on screening children for reading difficulties, yet sixty years of research have not resolved which kindergarten constructs best predict later reading outcomes. The study aimed to determine which kindergarten measures best predict reading outcomes in Grades 1 and 2. It evaluated the relative importance of multiple kindergarten assessments for predicting reading outcomes at the end of 1st and 2nd grades. Analyses showed that phonological awareness, letter sound knowledge, and naming speed consistently predicted reading outcomes, while perceptual skills, oral language, and vocabulary did not, confirming that these three measures are strong predictors in Grades 1 and 2.

Abstract

There is considerable focus in public policy on screening children for reading difficulties. Sixty years of research have not resolved questions of what constructs assessed in kindergarten best predict subsequent reading outcomes. This study assessed the relative importance of multiple measures obtained in a kindergarten sample for the prediction of reading outcomes at the end of 1st and 2nd grades. Analyses revealed that measures of phonological awareness, letter sound knowledge, and naming speed consistently accounted for the unique variance across reading outcomes whereas measures of perceptual skills and oral language and vocabulary did not. These results show that measures of letter name and letter sound knowledge, naming speed, and phonological awareness are good predictors of multiple reading outcomes in Grades 1 and 2.