A last-mile delivery channel choice by E-shoppers: assessing the potential demand for automated parcel lockers

Abstract

This study presents the results of assessing the potential demand for an automated parcel locker (APL) system that is being deployed. A two-stage approach was developed for assessing the potential demand for APL. Within the first stage, we reveal the current demand for attended and unattended deliveries based on Random Utility Modelling. We then estimate grocery shopping activity time expenditures and evaluate possible reductions if the shopping and pickup activities were combined. We determined consumers’ prevailing preferences and behaviours towards post office channel usage (i.e. from 71% for perfumes and cosmetics to 88% for clothes). The discrete choice modelling results revealed both economic and spatial attributes as significant when online shoppers choose a delivery channel. The location for the proposed APL system, i.e. 24/7 minimarkets, would reduce walking time for the pick-up process from 20% - 47% depending on locations of post offices in relation to the online shoppers’ homes.