Predicting student success in a blended learning environment

Abstract

Blended learning is gaining ground in contemporary education. However, studies on predictive learning analytics in the context of blended learning remain relatively scarce compared to Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), where such applications have gained a strong foothold. Data sets obtained from blended learning environments suffer from a high dimensionality and typically expose a limited number of instances, which makes predictive analysis a challenging task. In this work, we explore the log data of a master-level blended course to predict the students' grades based entirely on the data obtained from an online module (a small private online course), using and comparing logistic regression and random forest-based predictive models. The results of the analysis show that, despite the limited data, success vs. fail predictions can be made as early as in the middle of the course. This could be used in the future for timely interventions, both for failure prevention as well as for reinforcing positive learning behaviours of students.