Evaluating arrival rate uncertainty in call centers

Abstract

Inbound call center operations are challenging to manage, in large part because there is considerable uncertainty in estimates of arrival rates, which vary over time. We have developed a general purpose simulation model for inbound call center operations which supports time varying and uncertain arrival rates along with variable staffing. We out-line the conceptual and technical design of the simulation model. We then define and conduct an initial experiment that uses the model to evaluate the impact of arrival rate uncertainty on call center performance. We find that arrival rate uncertainty creates significant planning challenges for managers attempting to satisfy tight performance targets, particularly one-sided performance measures. We also find that abandonment rate has a major impact on call center performance.