Global Diffusion of Technological Innovations: A Coupled-Hazard Approach

Abstract

The authors propose a new methodology called the “coupled-hazard approach” to study the global diffusion of technological innovations. Beyond its ability to describe discontinuous diffusion patterns, the method explicitly recognizes the conceptual difference between the timing of a country's introduction of the new technology (the so-called implementation stage; Rogers 1983 ) and the timing of the innovation's full adoption in the country (the confirmation stage). To illustrate the method, the authors apply it to the global diffusion of digital telecommunications switches across more than 160 countries.