Statistical estimation of uncertainty for single event effect rate in OMERE

Abstract

Single Event Effect (SEE) rate prediction is made by combining the cross section vs LET for the part (from heavy ion test) with the on-orbit radiation environment. A significant number of technological parameters are involved in the Single Event Rate (SER) computation. Some of them may not be known and must be guessed. Those approximated values may dramatically increase the SER uncertainty. In the first step, this paper is focused on the SER calculation dependency on 3 types of parameters: device parameters characterizing radiation sensitivity, Weibull fit parameters and radiation environment parameters. We highlight the most critical parameters in heavy ion SEE rate calculation, using the RPP method and a Weibull distribution. An uncertainty calculation method based on a statistical approach has been implemented in OMERE.