Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population

Abstract

Existing single-adoption diffusion models assume a static (constant) ceiling on the number of adopters, that is, a constant population of potential adopters, over the entire time frame of the diffusion process. However, for most innovations this assumption is tenuous. Rather, the ceiling, or the potential adopter population is more likely to be dynamic. The present paper relaxes this assumption and presents a dynamic diffusion model. To illustrate the application of this model, data from two innovations are analyzed.