The Role of Hubs in the Adoption Process

TLDR

The study examines how hubs—individuals with many social ties—affect diffusion and adoption. The authors analyze a large network with multiple adoptions to distinguish innovative hubs from follower hubs. The results show that hubs adopt earlier than expected, with innovative hubs speeding adoption while follower hubs expand market size, and a small sample of hubs can accurately predict success versus failure early in diffusion.

Abstract

The authors explore the role of hubs (people with an exceptionally large number of social ties) in diffusion and adoption. Using data on a large network with multiple adoptions, they identify two types of hubs—innovative and follower hubs. Contrary to recent arguments, hubs tend to adopt earlier in the diffusion process, even though they are not necessarily innovative. Although innovative hubs have a greater impact on the speed of the adoption process, follower hubs have a greater impact on market size (total number of adoptions). Importantly, a small sample of hubs offers accurate success versus failure predictions early in the diffusion process.