Modeling Alternative Futures with General Morphological Analysis

Abstract

General morphological analysis (GMA) is a method for systematically structuring and analyzing the total set of relationships contained in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problem complexes. During the past 15 years, GMA has been extended, computerized and applied to long-term strategy management and organizational structuring. It is especially useful for developing scenario models and mapping alternative futures. This article outlines the fundamentals of the morphological approach and describes its use in a number of case studies in scenario development and futures projections done for Swedish government authorities and NGOs.