Manpower forecasting and modelling replacement demand: an overview

Abstract

Since the 1960s, numerous models have been developed that aim to forecast future developments on the labour market or to provide useful guidelines for achieving the desired development. This paper provides an overview of these manpower forecasting models, from the viewpoint of the modelling of replacement demand, which is the demand for labour due to the outflow of workers because of retirement, disablement, migration etc. or because of job mobility. These manpower forecasting models have focused on the modelling of total employment by economic sector, occupation, and – to a lesser extent – educational category. Less attention has been paid to the modelling of replacement demand and the inflow of newcomers onto the labour market, although some studies in these fields have been published recently.