Dynamic modeling of present and future service demand

Abstract

The emphasis on "forecasting" demand for future services hides the fact that demand is not a predetermined element but something that is strongly influenced by societal and economic trends and the actions of market players. Any forecast makes implicit assumptions about the future. In a rapidly changing market, businesses need to supplement traditional forecasting models with dynamic models that explicitly include factors influencing changes in demand and enable managers to explore the impact on demand of different business options. This paper describes the use of systems dynamics modeling to provide insight into the factors influencing service growth.