Ways to Assess Hindsight Bias

Abstract

Hindsight bias is a robust phenomenon; it has been found with different designs, materials, and measures. However, several methodological problems may hinder an adequate analysis and interpretation of results obtained in experimental studies of the effect. This article therefore systematizes and critically discusses relevant features of designs, materials, and types of feedback, as well as different operationalizations and indices of hindsight bias. In particular, the potential confound of recollection and reconstruction, which may lead to inadequate theoretical conclusions, is addressed.