Forecasting future competency requirements: a three‐phase methodology

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce an integrated three‐phase methodology for forecasting future competency requirements more effectively than existing methods. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is demonstrated with reference to empirical research conducted by the authors. The methodology consists of three phases: phase 1 – preliminary interviews, phase 2 – questionnaire, and phase 3 – critical incident technique interviews. Outputs from phases 1 and 2 are used to generate a framework through which to elicit future competency requirements during phase 3. Findings The empirical findings, although included, are incidental to the current paper; they serve solely to illustrate the methodology. As such, the development and demonstration of this methodology are the main “findings” of the paper. Research limitations/implications Methodologies for forecasting future competency requirements should adopt structured integrated approaches to improve predictive accuracy. Practical implications The methodology is described in sufficient detail so as to enable its practical application by HR professionals and academic researchers alike. Both groups will find this methodology extremely useful. Originality/value The paper seeks to improve upon existing methods for forecasting future competency requirements. By addressing the limitations of existing methods, and also by merging previously independent approaches, it provides an innovative integrated methodology of significant value.