Applying General Systems Theory to the Strategic Scanning of the Environment from 2015 to 2050

Abstract

Strategists derive further insights into the affect of trends and possible future scenarios when examining the components of the external environment using von Bertalanffy's General Systems Theory. There is a deeper understanding of the inter-relatedness of the influencing factors in the environment when applying systems theory to the strategic planning model. This approach produces a richer, and thus better, appreciation of the sub-systems that compose the larger synergistic general system that is our global total system. The addition of von Bertalanffy's systems theory perspective to the strategic scanning of the future to 2050 seems practical and wise. Tomorrow always arrives; the wise seek knowledge to prepare! - Anonymous Strategists perform environmental scanning by monitoring the globe for future opportunities and threats that will affect their organizations. The external environment is generally beyond the control of any organization and includes the following categories: the competition, the economy, social-cultural-demographic factors, political-legal-governmental aspects, technology, and the natural environment. Each of these categories is a sub-system of a larger system, when systems theory explains the strategic planning model. Therefore, this paper's thesis is that an understanding of general systems theory provides an enhanced appreciation of how each of these sub-systems interconnects and interacts. In addition, by using this conceptual approach, one may understand more deeply trends and the critical nature of the interplay between these various components. Japan Inc. is now strategically planning for the year 2025. Chinese strategic planners are projecting 2150. Recently, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) uncharacteristically released an unclassified document entitled, Global Trends 2015, for rare public consumption (Global Trends 2015, published by the CIA, 2001).1 Other respected sources, Which World?: Scenarios for the 21st Century, present similar trends and forecast through 2050 (Which World?: Scenarios for the 21st Century, published by California Institute of Technology, 2001).2 Using the lens of systems theory, we may see how trends and likely scenarios of the future global environment between 2015 and 2050 are connected. According to systems theory, a sub-system or trend is conceptually not in isolation of the global total system. One statement summarizes the CIA's Global Trends 2015: Globalization will provide mankind with the unprecedented opportunity to improve the quality of human life across the planet; but progress will be hampered by economic volatility, by the political implications of sharpening inequities in income, and by the growing threat from multiple, relatively small-scale programs of weapons of mass destruction [emphasizes added] (Gannon, 2000).3 Here, the sub-systems involved in the CIA's trend forecast include the economic sub-system, the political subsystem, and the affect of an underlying criminal/terrorist sub-system. The CIA's study makes four points: 1. First, a networked global economy [consisting of many interconnected sub-systems of various economies] will be a net contributor to increased political stability in the world [of many political sub-systems]. US interests will increasingly be tied to our dependence on global networks [of the above connected sub-systems] that ensure the unrestricted flow of economic, political, and technical information, as well as people, goods, and capital. 2. Second, global change in the decades ahead will broaden our definition of national security and expand the US intelligence agenda in both the numbers and complexity of issues we cover. In 15 years, CIA will still be focused on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, narcotics, and organized crime. But newer issues, such as information operations and threats to our space systems, will command a growing amount of our time [here the sub-system of concern is the world's criminal/terrorists]. …