Risk Management Framework for Mitigating Cost Overruns in Public Housing Development Projects

Abstract

Cost overruns remain a persistent challenge in public housing development projects, undermining financial sustainability, project timelines, and stakeholder trust. This proposes a comprehensive Risk Management Framework aimed at mitigating cost overruns through proactive identification, assessment, and control of risk factors throughout the project lifecycle. The framework integrates both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis methods, emphasizing early-stage planning, continuous monitoring, and adaptive management strategies. Key dimensions considered include financial planning, procurement management, contractor performance, material supply chain reliability, and regulatory compliance. By employing structured risk mapping and probabilistic modeling, the framework facilitates prioritization of high-impact risks and supports evidence-based decision-making. Furthermore, it advocates for enhanced stakeholder collaboration, transparent communication, and the adoption of digital tools such as Building Information Modeling (BIM) and project management software to improve risk visualization and cost tracking. This draws on empirical data from case studies of public housing projects in developing regions, highlighting contextual challenges such as limited budget flexibility, inflationary pressures, inadequate risk documentation, and weak governance mechanisms. Findings indicate that projects implementing systematic risk management practices exhibit significantly lower cost deviations and improved delivery efficiency. The proposed framework underscores the necessity for institutionalized risk management policies, capacity building among project teams, and alignment between technical and financial oversight mechanisms. Ultimately, this research contributes to improving cost performance, accountability, and long-term value creation in public housing programs. The framework serves as a decision-support tool for policymakers, project managers, and construction professionals seeking to enhance project predictability and ensure sustainable housing delivery.