Reflections and predictions on effects of COVID-19 pandemic on retailing

Abstract

Purpose The Covid-19 pandemic has a strong effect on societies, business and consumers. Governments have taken measures to reduce the spread of the pandemic, such as social distancing and lockdowns. The latter has also resulted in a temporary closure of physical stores for “non-essential” retailing. Covid-19 thus has a profound impact on how people live. The period of relative isolation, social distancing and economic uncertainty changes the way we behave. New consumer behaviors span all areas of life, from how we work to how we shop to how we entertain ourselves. These shifts have important implications for retailers. This paper aims to discuss the potential structural effect on shopping behavior and retailing when Covid-19 measures are no longer needed and society moves back to a normal situation. Design/methodology/approach The paper synthesizes empirical and conceptual literature on the consequences of COVID-19 and introduces a conceptual framework along with a set of predictions that can be investigated with empirical data. Findings This study suggests that Covid-19 shapes both consumer needs and behavior and how retailers respond to these changes. Moreover, it suggests that this will not only affect market outcomes (i.e. retail sales and market share online) but also firm outcomes (i.e. customer experience, firm sales) and importantly the competition between online and offline retailers. Originality/value In the conceptual framework, this study aims to advance knowledge on longer-term outcomes (vs immediate outcomes such as panic buying) and how COVID-19 is changing the competitive landscape of retail.