Integrated Risk Analysis of Aggregators: Policy Implications for the Development of the Competitive Aggregator Industry

Abstract

One of the important goals of the EU is to ensure a secure, sustainable, and competitive energy system that is less dependent on external energy supply. Greater independence is planned to be achieved by diversifying energy sources, as well as investing in renewables and energy efficiency. One of the mechanisms is the demand response (DR) that provides a high level of energy independence for the consumer. In this paper, we explore perspectives of the development of DR with a mediating effect of the independent aggregators from an EU member state standpoint. We use a hybrid research methodology that combines instruments of strategic analysis, i.e., PESTLE framework and SWOT analysis, along with the integrated risk management framework in order to identify, evaluate and rank prominent risks to which this initiative is exposed. Interdependencies between the identified risk factors are also included and efficient mitigation measures are proposed. The findings of this exploratory research are aimed at developing the policies and strategies for the aggregators’ development in the medium term. The most emphasized risks detected in analysis are the investment risk, the legal risk, the risk of substitute technologies, the consumer behavior risk, the risk of opportunistic behavior and the risk of entry barriers.