Projecting the global demand for teachers: meeting the goal of universal primary education by 2015

Abstract

As government policies move from an emphasis on the expansion of primary education towards the improvement of quality provision, teachers are recognised for their central role in ensuring learning achievement for all. The shortage of primary teachers is an issue in all parts of the world, but it is a particular obstacle for many less-developed countries seeking to achieve Education for All (EFA) and the time-bound goal of providing universal primary education (UPE) by 2015. According to UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) estimates, about one-half of the world's countries will need more primary teachers in classrooms by 2015. Sub-Saharan Africa is faced with the greatest challenge, where the number of teachers must grow from 2.6 million in 2007 to 3.7 million in eight years to meet the UPE goal. [This paper] presents new global projections by the UIS to quantify the teacher gap in primary education and to assess the scope of the challenges facing countries. It identifies countries that face moderate or severe shortages, and those needing to expand their teaching forces in order to enrol all primary school-age children by 2015. The paper also describes the concepts, assumptions and calculation techniques of the UIS projection model and provides detailed background information in order to allow informed use of the results.