IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems · 2018 · 64 citations · 36 references
ComputingCloud ComputingCloud ArchitectureCloud InfrastructureForecastingCloud ForecastingCloud Resource ManagementElastic Resource ManagementResource ProvisioningResource SchedulingScalability ArchitectureAuto-scalingCloud Resource ForecastingProactive ScalingPublic CloudResource Consumption AnalysisResource Consumption ForecastingResource Consumption ModelingWorkload Prediction
Auto-scalers for clouds promise stable service quality at low costs when facing changing workload intensity. The major public cloud providers provide trigger-based auto-scalers based on thresholds. However, trigger-based auto-scaling has reaction times in the order of minutes. Novel auto-scalers from literature try to overcome the limitations of reactive mechanisms by employing proactive prediction methods. However, the adoption of proactive auto-scalers in production is still very low due to the high risk of relying on a single proactive method. This paper tackles the challenge of reducing this risk by proposing a new hybrid auto-scaling mechanism, called Chameleon, combining multiple different proactive methods coupled with a reactive fallback mechanism. Chameleon employs on-demand, automated time series-based forecasting methods to predict the arriving load intensity in combination with run-time service demand estimation to calculate the required resource consumption per work unit without the need for application instrumentation. We benchmark Chameleon against five different state-of-the-art proactive and reactive auto-scalers one in three different private and public cloud environments. We generate five different representative workloads each taken from different real-world system traces. Overall, Chameleon achieves the best scaling behavior based on user and elasticity performance metrics, analyzing the results from 400 hours aggregated experiment time.
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Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
Michael D. Geurts, George E. P. Box, Gwilym M. Jenkins · Journal of Marketing Research · 1977 · 19.3K citations
Computing, Data Science, Forecasting +11
Another look at measures of forecast accuracy
Rob J. Hyndman, Anne B. Koehler · International Journal of Forecasting · 2006 · 5.3K citations
Computing, Mathematics, Meteorology +16