The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

TLDR

Scenario development is the stock‑in‑trade of futures studies, yet no catalog of the techniques used has been published. The paper reviews all scenario‑development techniques in the literature, commenting on their utility, strengths, and weaknesses, and proposes a consensus list to be refined as the field matures. The authors performed an electronic search of internet search engines, online databases, and indexes to identify scenario‑development techniques. The review identifies eight categories comprising 23 variations of scenario techniques, each described and evaluated, providing futurists with a broadened repertoire and a starting point for a consensus list to be refined as the field matures.

Abstract

Purpose The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. Design/methodology/approach The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes. Findings The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each. Practical implications Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques. Originality/value Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.