Strategic Planning Simulation Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map Knowledge and Dif ferential Game

Abstract

It is very difficult for strategic planning managers to fully understand complex chains of influence process of the changing environment on the per formance of implemented strategy. To resolve this kind of problem, this paper presents a mechanism of integrating fuzzy cognitive map knowledge with a strategic planning simulation, where a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) helps decision makers under stand the complex dynamics between a certain strategic goal and related environmental factors. We use a differential game mechanism as a main vehicle of strategic planning simulation so that the FCM knowledge-based simulation can be per formed as incorporating time-variant competition. Experiments with a set of numerical examples showed that the performance of the proposed stra tegic planning simulation mechanism can effec tively allow decision makers to build robust stra tegic planning under time-variant competitive situations, and yield very promising results in terms of performance.