Constructing and using scenarios to forecast demand for future mobile communications services

Abstract

Purpose Aims to present a pragmatic method for long‐term forecasting and to illustrate its usage with the results of a recent case study to forecast future demand for mobile communications services. Design/methodology/approach A scenario construction methodology is explained in detail. The case material presented here is drawn from a forecasting exercise for the European Commission between September 2004 and April 2005 examining potential demand for mobile communications services up to 2020. Findings The formalized method and a synopsis of the actual scenarios generated in the case study are given here in outline. The paper also indicates how needs analysis was used in conjunction with the scenarios to generate a list of potential services and their use, which formed the basis of detailed traffic estimates. Certain aspects of the method and its results have been incorporated by the ITU working committees into their detailed preparations for the World Radiocommunication Conference's negotiations in 2007. Research limitations/implications This paper can only give a brief description of the scenarios and provides only limited detail on how the scenarios were subsequently used to generate forecasts of demand for mobile communication services. Originality/value The paper demonstrates a socio‐economic forecasting method based on scenarios and their use in forecasting demand within the telecommunications sector.