Peut-on prédire la réussite d'une première année universitaire?

Abstract

The idea of setting systematic selection procedures for university entrance, though it is not a new one, is presently being reintroduced. One reason for this is that in most countries education budget is submitted to financial restrictions. Among other current arguments we may quote the assertion that lack of selection results in a high proportion of failure at the end of the first year in university, which means social and individual waste. We do not intend to argue about possible deviant effects of such a reform (especially in terms of social disparity) : our aim is merely to show that a relevant system of selection for university entrance is difficult to organize because predictive studies on academic success, based on data on students characteristics when they enter or on academic adjustment indicators, are usually too vague to be used as selection tools before or during the first year or college.