Perspective: New Product Failure Rates: Influence of <i><scp>A</scp>rgumentum ad <scp>P</scp>opulum</i> and Self‐Interest

Abstract

A persistent myth in product innovation and management is that the failure rate of new products is 80% or higher. How does this false idea continue to displace the conclusions of empirical studies since 1977 that the new product failure rate is 40% or less? We examine the influence of a fallacy that encourages people's unthinking acceptance of ideas on new product failure rates and whose appeal rests primarily on an emotional, rather than a reasoned, argument. Self‐interest also plays a major role in keeping this myth alive.