Study of COVID-19 Epidemic Control Capability and Emergency Management Strategy Based on Optimized SEIR Model

Abstract

Due to insufficient epidemic detection and control, untimely government interventions, and high epidemic prevention costs in the early stages of the epidemic outbreak, the spread of the epidemic may become out of control and pose a great threat to human society. This paper optimized and improved the traditional Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model for investigating epidemic control and public health emergency management. Using the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak as an example, this paper simulates and analyzes the development of an epidemic outbreak during various periods with the optimized SEIR model, to explore the emergency control capacity of conventional medical control measures, such as large-scale outbreak testing capacity, hospital admission capacity, or daily protection of key personnel, and analyze the government’s emergency management strategies to achieve low-cost epidemic control. The model developed in this study and the results of its analysis demonstrate the differences in outbreak emergency control capacity under different conditions and different implementation strategies. A low-cost local outbreak emergency management strategy and the timing of the government’s resumption of work and school are discussed on this basis.