Trends and Characteristics of Incidents in China Civil Aviation: 1994–2020

Abstract

Safety is of great importance to the sustainable development of air transportation. Because aviation accidents rarely occur, the traditional indexes based on fatal accidents and fatality could not provide enough information for accident prevention and continuous safety improvement. This paper collected data on 6,357 incidents in China civil aviation from 1994 to 2020. Afterward, a whole picture was drawn to reflect the detailed safety situation by analyzing the characteristics and trend of incidents. From 1994 to 2008, the annual number of incidents in China civil aviation remained relatively stable. After 2008, the number of incidents exhibited an obvious growth trend, but the incidents per million flight hours remained stable. From the direct cause of incidents, operator and mechanic are no longer the leading causes. Presently, 63.4% of incidents are caused by environmental factors, showing an increasing trend. From the operation phase, most incidents occurred during the cruise phase (29.8%), followed by the approach phase (19.4%), and the take-off phase (16.0%). In addition, there have been many incidents that occurred during uncertain phase. From the typical incidents, bird strikes and lightning strikes account for 43.8% and 6.7% of the total incidents, respectively, showing an annually ascending trend. Engine shutdown accounts for 9.4% but the number exhibits a descending trend. As an important index of safety, the trend and characteristics of incidents can specifically reflect the safety situation of the aviation industry, and provide a reference for accident prevention and continuous safety improvement.