Adjusting Stated Intention Measures to Predict Trial Purchase of New Products: A Comparison of Models and Methods

Abstract

Several of the largest marketing research suppliers estimate that 70 to 90% of their clients use purchase intention scales in some form on a regular basis. Though there have been many studies of purchase intention, relatively few researchers have tried to relate purchase intention to actual purchase behavior. Those who have attempted to relate the two often have found substantial variation between stated intention and actual behavior. The authors have collected what they believe is the largest and most comprehensive database on purchase intention and actual purchase behavior for new products yet developed. They use different models in a comparison of predictive accuracy when stated intentions data are adjusted by separate perceptions of products such as willingness to consult others before purchase, affordability, liking, and availability.