Modelling Transitions to Sustainable Food Systems: Are We Missing the Point?

Abstract

Summary Agricultural stakeholders have concerns regarding the potential impact of the Farm‐to‐Fork and Biodiversity strategies on the agricultural sector. Several studies have been published recently trying to understand how these strategies would affect the sector, including a JRC report on modelling environmental and climate ambition in the agricultural sector written by the authors of this article. In this article, we argue that the narrow focus of the analysis undertaken is the main driver of the reported reduction in agricultural production in the EU, its deteriorating trade balance and increased prices. We highlight that the strategies include a much broader set of interventions that are not accounted for in the analysis and that the tools used have limitations preventing them from capturing the full scope of potential impacts. The evidence gained from improvements to our modelling approach further reinforce the idea that reported impacts are a higher bound of the potential impact of the input reduction targets. In addition, we signal the limited evidence available on the co‐benefits of improved environmental quality the strategies aim to attain. Both aspects lead us to conclude that we are currently far from being able to assess the impacts that a transition to more sustainable food systems will have on the agricultural sector.