Production suitability of date palm under changing climate in a semi-arid region predicted by CLIMEX model

Abstract

Date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.), a member of the Arecaceae family is grown on large areas in the world with varying climatic and soil conditions. However, date palm productivity is severely being affected by ongoing climate changes. Identifying suitable production areas for date palm under changing climatic conditions could help to sustain its production. The objective of the current study was to predict the range expansion/contraction in the production areas of date palm in a semi-arid region. CLIMEX model was used to estimate the expected expansion/contraction in the potential distribution areas of date palm under current and future climatic conditions. Two climate change scenarios [(CCSs) i.e., A1B and A2] were used and production suitability was predicted for three timespans [i.e., 2030 (early-century), 2050 (mid-century) and 2100 (late century)]. The model estimated significant suitable area (71.21%) for date palm cultivation under current climatic conditions. Climate change seemed to have no impact on production areas until early-century. However, range contraction (8 and 10% decline under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively) in the suitable areas was predicted for mid-century. Nonetheless, severe range contraction (27.98 and 33% decline under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively) was predicted in the production areas for late-century. Most of the climatically suitable areas during early-century became unsuitable during late-century. Moreover, the model predicted northward shift in the production areas for date palm. The range contraction was higher under A2 climate change scenario due to higher warming trend compared to A1B scenario. The results of the current study indicate that plenty of areas are suitable for date palm cultivation. Thus, date palm cultivation could be increased in these areas for augmenting the production. Climate warming will result in the range shifts; thus, cultivation of future orchards should be planned in the most suitable areas in order to avoid the negative consequences of climate change on date palm production in the country.