Definition of a genetic relatedness cutoff to exclude recent transmission of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a genomic epidemiology analysis

Abstract

BACKGROUND: (MRSA), above which recent (ie, within 6 months) patient-to-patient transmission could be ruled out. METHODS: substitution rate and 95th percentile within-host diversity in a cohort in which multiple isolates were sequenced per individual. Second, we applied a simulated transmission model to this same genomic dataset. Finally, in a second cohort, we determined the genetic distance (ie, the number of SNPs) that would capture 95% of epidemiologically linked cases. We applied the three approaches to both whole-genome and core-genome sequences. FINDINGS: In the linear mixed model, the estimated substitution rate was roughly 5 whole-genome SNPs (wgSNPs) or 3 core-genome SNPs (cgSNPs) per genome per year, and the 95th percentile within-host diversity was 19 wgSNPs or 10 cgSNPs. The combined SNP cutoffs for detection of MRSA transmission within 6 months per this model were thus 24 wgSNPs or 13 cgSNPs. The simulated transmission model suggested that cutoffs of 17 wgSNPs or 12 cgSNPs would detect 95% of MRSA transmission events within the same timeframe. Finally, in the second cohort, cutoffs of 22 wgSNPs or 11 cgSNPs captured 95% of epidemiologically linked cases within 6 months. INTERPRETATION: On the basis of our results, we propose conservative cutoffs of 25 wgSNPs or 15 cgSNPS above which transmission of MRSA within the previous 6 months can be ruled out. These cutoffs could potentially be used as part of a genomic sequencing approach to the management of outbreaks of MRSA in conjunction with traditional epidemiological techniques. FUNDING: UK Department of Health, Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health Research.