Application of Circulating Cell-Free Tumor DNA Profiles for Therapeutic Monitoring and Outcome Prediction in Genetically Heterogeneous Metastatic Melanoma

Abstract

PURPOSE Circulating cell-free tumor DNA (ctDNA) reflects the heterogeneous spectrum of tumor-specific mutations, especially in systemic disease. We validated plasma-based assays that allow the dynamic quantitative detection of ctDNA as a prognostic biomarker for tumor load and prediction of therapy response in melanoma. MATERIALS and METHODS We analyzed plasma-derived ctDNA from a large training cohort (n = 96) of patients with advanced-stage melanoma, with assays for the BRAF V600E and NRAS Q61 driver mutations as well as TERT C250T and TERT C228T promoter mutations. An independent patient cohort (n = 35) was used to validate the utility of ctDNA monitoring under mitogen-activated protein kinase–targeted or immune checkpoint therapies. RESULTS Elevated plasma ctDNA level at baseline was an independent prognostic factor of disease progression when compared with serum S100 and lactate dehydrogenase levels in multivariable analyses (hazard ratio [HR], 7.43; 95% CI, 1.01 to 55.19; P = .05). The change in ctDNA levels during therapy correlated with treatment response, where increasing ctDNA was predictive for shorter progression-free survival (eg, for BRAF V600E ctDNA, HR, 3.70; 95% CI, 1.86 to 7.34; P < .001). Increasing ctDNA levels predicted disease progression significantly earlier than did routine radiologic scans ( P < .05), with a mean lead time of 3.5 months. NRAS-mutant ctDNA was detected in a significant proportion of patients with BRAF-mutant tumors under therapy, but unexpectedly also at baseline. In vitro sensitivity studies suggested that this represents higher-than-expected intratumoral heterogeneity. The detection of NRAS Q61 ctDNA in baseline samples of patients with BRAF V600E mutation who were treated with mitogen-activated protein kinase inhibitors significantly correlated with shorter progression-free survival (HR, 3.18; 95% CI, 1.31 to 7.68; P = .03) and shorter overall survival (HR, 4.08; 95% CI, 1.57 to 10.58; P = .01). CONCLUSION Our results show the potential role of ctDNA measurement as a sensitive monitoring and prediction tool for the early assessment of disease progression and therapeutic response in patients with metastatic melanoma.