A Belief Rule Based Expert System to Predict Earthquake under Uncertainty

Abstract

The impact of earthquake is devastating, which has the capability to stop the socio-economic activities of a region within a short span of time. Therefore, an earlier prediction of earthquake could play an important role to save human lives as well as socio-economic activities. The signs of animal behavior along with environmental and chemical changes in nature could be considered as a way to predict the earthquake. These factors cannot be determined accurately because of the presence of different categories of uncertainties. Therefore, this article presents a belief rule based expert system (BRBES) which has the capability to predict earthquake under uncertainty. Historical data of various earthquakes of the world with specific reference to animal behavior as well as environmental and chemical changes have been considered in validating the BRBES. The reliability of our proposed BRBES’s output is measured in comparison with Fuzzy Logic Based Expert System (FLBES) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) based system, whereas our BRBES’s results are found more reliable than that of FLBES and ANN. Therefore, this BRBES can be considered to predict the occurrence of an earthquake in a region by taking account of the data, related to the animal, environmental and chemical changes.