Current Directions in Psychological Science · 2015 · 175 citations · 23 references
Social SciencesBehavioral SciencesEconomicsBehavioral EconomicsDecision AnalysisDecision TheoryReinforcement LearningStatistical InferenceCorrective LearningLearningLearning AgentsLearning From MistakesLearning In Decision-makingLearning Under UncertaintyLearning With Imperfect Information
Inference involves two settings: In the first, information is acquired (learning); in the second, it is applied (predictions or choices). Kind learning environments involve close matches between the informational elements in the two settings and are a necessary condition for accurate inferences. Wicked learning environments involve mismatches. This conceptual framework facilitates identifying sources of inferential errors and can be used, among other things, to suggest how to target corrective procedures. For example, structuring learning environments to be kind improves probabilistic judgments. Potentially, it could also enable economic agents to exhibit maximizing behavior.
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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman · Science · 1974 · 28K citations
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman · 1975 · 23.1K citations
On the psychology of prediction.
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · Psychological Review · 1973 · 6.3K citations