In the Nick of Time: Conflict Management, Mediation Timing, and the Duration of Interstate Disputes

TLDR

The study develops a theoretical link between the timing of conflict management and dispute duration. The authors test competing hypotheses using post‑1945 conflict data. Mediation effects on dispute duration are curvilinear: early mediation shortens disputes, mid‑period mediation lengthens them, and late mediation again shortens them, with consistent mediators improving outcomes.

Abstract

This paper develops a theoretical argument linking time and the timing of conflict management efforts to dispute duration. We test competing hypotheses on conflict data drawn from disputes in the post-1945 period. Our analysis demonstrates that the effects of mediation vary substantially over the course of a dispute. Specifically, we note that mediation has a curvilinear relationship with time and the ending of disputes. Mediation efforts that occur soon after disputes begin have the best chance of reducing expected future dispute duration. Following this initial period, subsequent mediation efforts lead to longer rather than shorter disputes. After a long period, mediation again leads to shorter rather than longer disputes. We also find that there should be consistency in the mediators used to manage a conflict rather than shifting personnel to interject new ideas.