Dynamic Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation from Traffic Counts and Automated Vehicle Identification Data

Abstract

The problem of estimating time-varying origin-destination matrices from time series of traffic counts is extended to allow for the use of partial vehicle trajectory observations. These may be obtained by using automated vehicle identification (AVI), for example, automated license plate recognition, but they may also originate from floating car data. The central problem definition allows for the use of data from induction loops and AVI equipment at arbitrary (but fixed) locations and allows for the presence of random error in traffic counts and misrecognition at the AVI stations. Although the described methods may be extended to more complex networks, the application addressed involves a single highway corridor in which no route choice alternatives exist. Analysis of the problem leads to an expression for the mutual dependencies between link volume observations and AVI data and the formulation of an estimation problem with inequality constraints. A number of traditional estimation procedures such as discounted constrained least squares (DCLS) and the Kalman filter are described, and a new procedure referred to as Bayesian updating is proposed. The advantage of this new procedure is that it deals with the inequality constraints in an appropriate statistical manner. Experiments with a large number of synthetic data sets indicate in all cases a reduction of the error of estimation due to usage of trajectory counts and, compared with the traditional DCLS and Kalman filtering methods, a superior performance of the Bayesian updating procedure.