Probabilistic Technology Assessment for NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Vehicle Concepts

Abstract

We present and demonstrate different approaches of subjective probability encoding pertinent to technology impact modeling for probabilistic assessment of advanced vehicle concepts. Results are generated and discussed using NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation as a relevant technology development and integration effort. We show that different techniques are suitable and can be selected on the basis of available technology impact information, and that significant differences are observed on the results across alternative methods. Uncertainty on percent fuel burn reduction and cumulative noise margin below Stage 4 is observed to be within 5% and 3 dB respectively. The impact and variability of technologies on noise margin for the hybrid wing body concept is also notably dominated by the inherent noise shielding benefits of this configuration.