Food availability and famine: A longer view

Abstract

This article argues that in order to prevent the outbreak of famine in the rural sector of underdeveloped countries, it is necessary, first, to identify the classes and groups which are vulnerable to starvation in the event of an economic shock. The identification of the build‐up to a ‘pre‐famine conjuncture’ requires careful monitoring (a) of the long‐run trends in per head food availability (which can fall owing to the commercialisation of production even when overall growth in agriculture outstrips population growth), particularly on a regional basis, and (b) of the terms of trade for agriculture both vis‐à‐vis the domestic non‐agricultural sector as well as the rest of the world, when trade is important. These propositions are illustrated with reference to the Bengal famine of 1943–44, and to the trends in per head food production in India from 1960 to 1987.