An agent-based simulation model for the market diffusion of a second generation biofuel

Abstract

Second generation biofuels are widely considered a promising energy alternative to conventional (fossil) fuels. Although they will not completely replace fossil fuels (e.g., due to the limited availability of biomass), these high-quality biofuels can contribute to reducing emissions and strengthening a country's energy autonomy. In Austria, a team at the Vienna University of Technology is developing a biomass-to-liquid technology based on the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. While the remaining technical obstacles are expected to be overcome in due time, the market introduction of the novel biofuel also requires substantial investments. In this context, we developed an agent-based simulation model that can provide potential investors with forecasts for the biofuel's market diffusion. This paper describes the model and presents simulation results.