Impact of valid selection procedures on work-force productivity.

TLDR

Computer programmers share similarities with other occupations, suggesting that findings on selection validity may generalize beyond this field. Decision‑theoretic equations and a new technique were used to estimate how a valid Programmer Aptitude Test would affect productivity across federal and national contexts under various selection ratios and validity assumptions. The PAT was shown to substantially increase productivity, potentially generating hundreds of millions of dollars in gains, and indicating that valid selection has a far greater impact than previously thought.

Abstract

Decision theoretic equations were used to estimate the impact of a valid test (the Programmer Aptitude Test; PAT) on productivity if it were used to select new computer programmers for one year in (a) the federal government and (b) the national economy. A newly developed technique was used to estimate the standard deviation of the dollar value of employee job performance, which in the past has been the most difficult and expensive item of required information to estimate. For the federal government and the U.S. economy, separately, results are presented for different selection ratios and for different assumed values for the validity of previously used selection procedures. The impact of the PAT on programmer productivity was substantial for all combinations of assumptions. The results support the conclusion that hundreds of millions of dollars in increased productivity could be realized by increasing the validity of selection decisions in this occupation. Likely similarities between computer programmers and other occupations are discussed. It is concluded that the impact of valid selection procedures on work-force productivity is considerably greater than most personnel psychologists have believed.