Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976

TLDR

The study is based on a comprehensive dataset of all recorded interstate threats, displays, and uses of military force from 1816 onward. The article aims to empirically describe and discuss interstate conflict behavior. The authors analyze historical trends and major dimensions of dispute behavior such as participation patterns, duration, severity, escalation, regional distribution, and national proneness. They find that dispute behavior patterns are persistent, evolve gradually with changes in the interstate system, and generalize across geographic boundaries.

Abstract

This article offers an empirical description and discussion of interstate conflict behavior. The basis is a recently completed data set consisting of all recorded instances of threats, displays, and uses of military force among states since 1816. We detail historical trends in the data and describe major dimensions of dispute behavior, including patterns of participation, duration, severity and escalation, regional distribution, and national dispute proneness. The following conclusions are suggested: First, patterns of dispute behavior have been more persistent over time than we often assume. Second, when these patterns have changed, the changes have been evolutionary in nature and have paralleled changes in the size and composition of the interstate system. Third, despite the diversity of the political units that constitute the interstate system, patterns of dispute behavior are generalizable across geographic boundaries.