A decision support framework for project sponsors in the planning stage of build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects

Abstract

Every decision-making problem is oriented towards the selection of the correct strategies for achieving objectives, and depends on the assumptions associated with different scenarios. Project planning in a buildoperate-transfer (BOT) project is a complicated decision-making problem because the model has a complex financial and organizational structure which is influenced also by the socio-economic environment in a country. A decision support framework is reported, as used in the planning stage of a hydropower plant project in Turkey, which helped the project company to check project viability against some predefined critical success factors, define the risk sharing scenarios under which a project becomes viable, incorporate risks into cash flow analysis and, finally, define effective risk mitigation strategies. Key challenges in the realization of BOT projects, particularly in developing countries, are discussed together with possible risk sharing principles between the private and public sector participants.