Momentum or Deceleration? Theoretical and Methodological Reflections on the Analysis of Organizational Change

Abstract

Research on organizational change has consistently shown that prior change increases the probability of further change, which supports the view that repetitive momentum governs change processes. We challenge this consensus, offering theoretical arguments for the opposite: Change propensity decreases as changes accumulate. We argue that unobserved heterogeneity in the inherent change propensity of organizations has biased prior results. Analyses of three data sets yielded positive effects of prior change on further change when we used the methodology of earlier studies. However, fixed-effects models that control for heterogeneity yielded negative effects. We conclude that deceleration, not repetitive momentum, governs change processes.