PLoS ONE · 2015 · 105 citations · 71 references
ManagementInnovation ManagementTechnology ManagementInnovationIntellectual PropertyIntellectual Property ManagementInnovation MetricsIntellectual Property StrategyPatent AnalysisPatent StrategyTechnological InnovationTechnological ProgressInnovation ProductivityIntellectual Property MetricsIntellectual Property Performance MetricsPatent BibliometricsPatent IndicatorsPatent Quality MetricsQuantitative DeterminationTechnological Change Rate
The results in this paper establish that information contained in patents in a technological domain is strongly correlated with the rate of technological progress in that domain. The importance of patents in a domain, the recency of patents in a domain and the immediacy of patents in a domain are all strongly correlated with increases in the rate of performance improvement in the domain of interest. A patent metric that combines both importance and immediacy is not only highly correlated (r = 0.76, p = 2.6*10(-6)) with the performance improvement rate but the correlation is also very robust to domain selection and appears to have good predictive power for more than ten years into the future. Linear regressions with all three causal concepts indicate realistic value in practical use to estimate the important performance improvement rate of a technological domain.
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Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits
Gordon E. Moore · Proceedings of the IEEE · 1998 · 5.8K citations