Statistical Evaluation of Factors Affecting Indicator Bacteria in Urban Storm-Water Runoff

Abstract

An urban watershed in Raleigh, North Carolina, was monitored for indicator bacteria during 20 rain events. Results showed elevated levels of E. coli, enterococci, and fecal coliform. Samples were compared based on seasonality and were found to be statistically different (p<0.05), with pairwise comparisons indicating significantly lower concentrations of E. coli and fecal coliform during the winter (p<0.05). Enterococci concentrations were substantially lower in the winter and fall, but no significant differences were found between seasons during pairwise comparisons (p<0.05). Correlation analyses showed multiple significant relationships between antecedent climate parameters, flow characteristics, and indicator bacteria concentrations. More detailed multiple linear regression yielded explanatory variables related to antecedent climate conditions. Variables were generally related to temperature and moisture conditions in the atmosphere and soil. The results of this study show indicator bacteria concentrations significantly vary based on season; however, this variability can partially be explained by antecedent climate data.