Foresight in science and technology

TLDR

Emerging generic technologies promise revolutionary economic and societal impact, but their success hinges on scientific advances amid rising global competition. The paper aims to analyze how Japan, the US, the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK use foresight to select and exploit research likely to yield long‑term economic and social benefits. It proposes a foresight process model for identifying strategic research areas and technologies, and examines factors that make some foresight exercises more successful. The study concludes by drawing an analogy between models of innovation and foresight.

Abstract

Emerging generic technologies seem set to make a revolutionary impact on the economy and society. However, success in developing such technologies depends upon advances in science. Confronted with increasing global economic competition, policy-makers and scientists are grappling with the problem of how to select the most promising research areas and emerging technologies on which to target resources and, hence, derive the greatest benefits. This paper analyzes the experiences of Japan, the US, the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and the UK in using foresight to help in selecting and exploiting research that is likely to yield longer-term economic and social benefits. It puts forward a model of the foresight process for identifying research areas and technologies of strategic importance, and also analyzes why some foresight exercises have proved more successful than others. It concludes by drawing an analogy between models of innovation and foresight.