Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like Design

Abstract

Many central banks are considering issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). How will the CBDC affect the macroeconomy? Will its design matter? To answer these questions, we theoretically and quantitatively assess the effects of a CBDC on consumption, banking, and welfare. Our model captures the competition between different means of payments and incorporates a novel general equilibrium feedback effect from transactions to deposits creation. The general equilibrium effects of a CBDC are decomposed into three channels: payment efficiency, price effects, and bank funding costs. We show that a cash-like CBDC is more effective than a deposit-like CBDC in promoting consumption and welfare. Interestingly, a cash-like CBDC can also crowd in banking, even in the absence of bank market power. In a calibrated model, at the maximum, a cash-like CBDC can increase bank intermediation by 10.2% and welfare by 0.059%, and it can capture up to 23.3% of the payment market. We also discuss some lessons for designing a CBDC. This paper was accepted by Will Cong, Special Section of Management Science: Blockchains and Crypto Economics. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02763 .