Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Impact and Anthropogenic Influence on Crop Production and Food Security in Shandong, Eastern China

Abstract

Food security plays an important role in maintaining national stability and sustainable development of human society, and its research has become a hot issue at present. Shandong is the main grain producing area in China, and its grain production plays an important role in national food security. Accordingly, this paper is based on the county climate change, grain yield, sown area, fertilizer use, total power of rural machinery, and total population data in Shandong Province from 1995 to 2020. The evolution process of the food security pattern was studied by the methods of spatial analysis and comprehensive evaluation, the influencing factors of food security were quantitatively analyzed, and the adaptive countermeasures to alleviate the food security risks in this region were discussed. The results show that: Grain production increased by 30.62% from 1995 to 2020. The total population and per capita food availability also increased. Since 2000, more than a quarter of counties have experienced a high risk of food insecurity. The spatial agglomeration of grain production was enhanced, and the local agglomeration characteristics were significantly different. The average temperature in the growing season, the sown area, and the total power of agricultural machinery had a significant positive impact on grain production, while the annual average temperature had a significant negative impact on grain production. Improving the food supply system, strengthening the protection of cultivated land, improving the efficiency of fertilizer utilization, and increasing investment in agricultural science and technology can effectively alleviate food security risks.